As I saw an efficient yet restrained Arsenal dismantle an uninspiring Celtic in a Champions League qualifier, thoughts digressed to Prof. Wenger's prediction reported by media earlier in the day about the possibility of a European League. It's not news really and the concept has been discussed and debated in the media for sure, yet it is interesting to see someone of Wenger's stature and knowledge claim that there may be "some voices behind the scenes in our game aiming to do something about a European league, especially if the rules become too restrictive for the big clubs as things currently stand". Wenger gives a ten year time frame by when this could happen. I believe it could happen in five, if not sooner.

The Inevitability of it all

One of the joys of football, or any sport for that matter, is about not knowing the outcome beforehand. Yet, step out of the football field and take a look at the industry and not the sport and the crystal ball becomes clearer by the day. It does not take an insider to figure out that the "voices behind the scene" are not just aiming to do something about a European League, they are in all probability rubbing their currency itching palms in glee at the prospect of what could be. For the moneyed, there are so many compelling reasons to take the concept to reality that a European Super League increasingly looks to be an inevitability and not just a possibility.

Let me list out some of the key reasons why I believe this is an event waiting to happen:

The financial opportunity is too large and obvious to miss: We all know how the threat of missing out on a Champions League spot hovers over managers of big clubs like the Sword of Damocles. Big games between big teams mean the ability to generate more revenues through gate receipts, sponsorships and most importantly television rights. Now imagine a league in which Chelsea play Barcelona, Manchester United take on Inter Milan, Bayern slug it out against Real Madrid and other such contests on the same weekend. Now imagine this happening every weekend. What will be difficult to imagine is the quantum of money that TV companies will be willing to shell out for a league like that and the amount of viewership it will generate week in and week out throughout the year. The rich like getting richer and the opportunity is none to subtly staring everyone in the face and hence, it is bound to happen.

The rich clubs are spending too much to sustain themselves with the current revenue models: Amounts spent on player transfers and wages this summer could have fed countries.  Be it through billionaire owners or benign banks in these times of depression, the debt to revenue ratios of the richest clubs read poorer than the corrected books of Satyam Technologies. While the moneybags sponsoring this mayhem may show minimal concern about a tiny hole in their pockets, clubs as institutions will have to fortify themselves against the risks of being over-dependent on their benefactors. All this even as the market dictates that they will continue to have to spend big, in fact very big just to keep pace with the leading pack. Hence, they will explore ways of exponentially increasing revenues and that is not going to happen even if T-Shirt sales quintuple in volumes over the next few quarters.

In Florentino Perez, the catalyst to make it happen is present: It would be pretending to be to be too much in the know to say with certainty that Senor Perez will lead a consortium of Super Clubs to the riches of the Super League, yet if there is one obvious candidate to do it right here right now, then it is him. To begin with, his spending spree this summer has put him in a spot where he may lead the club to ruin even if Real go on to win everything on offer, for no amount of trophies, TV money and T-shirt sales may be enough to finance the money he has already spent. Hence, the onus is on him to up the ante and set new revenue records, just as he has been instrumental in creating new transfer fee records many times over. Add to that, the guy is a blatant, unsubtle megalomaniac and the very concept of a snobbish Super League fits perfectly with the personality. Hence, unless UEFA wakes up to the inevitability of the outcome and takes matters in its own hands, expect Senor Perez to make his move before any dark clouds begin hanging over his current spell in charge of Real. Well and if he doesn't, someone else will.

Wenger's Limiting Factors

In his acceptance of the likelihood of a European League, Wenger has gone on to define the likely structure that the league may take, keeping in mind his own preferences and the challenges that may be presented. Wenger's thoughts may be summarized as follows:

?    The key question to is to decide whether clubs will transfer from a national league or whether it is a franchised European league

?    He personally believes in sporting merit, so if one league is created there has to be promotion up and down but that would be, practically, very difficult to resolve (owing to multiple countries with different promotion candidates)

?    Each team should have to play in the national league and in Europe

?    "That means the Euro league taking place in midweek and the national league over the weekend.  All this would mean having two teams, basically."

It is no secret that most big clubs (with the notable exception of Wenger's Arsenal perhaps) already have squads big enough to field two teams a week, yet, with Internationals and the inevitable pressure to win everything everywhere, most managers will hardly be able to rest or rotate their big stars in either the Super League or the national leagues in Wenger's proposed structure. In many ways, what he proposes is not too different from the current structure of national leagues and European league cum knock out tournaments, at least in practice. Hence, very humbly, I would like to differ with Wenger's opinion on how this could shape up and propose what I think will be the system that comes into force.

How it could turn out

Without getting into the microscopic nitty-gritty of how teams will be selected and who will be in the Super League and who will not, here is how it could play out:

?    A substantial number of clubs (12-20) belonging to 6-8 national associations will be enrolled into the European Super League

?    The European Super League will act as the top-tier league for the clubs of these 6-8 national associations

?    Every year the last 2-3 position holders will get relegated into their national leagues

?    The winners of all participating national leagues will then play an end-of-season tournament (like the Championship play-offs to determine) the qualifiers for the Super League.  

?    Some sort of quota system (perhaps even a system with founding clubs being given permanent status in the league) will also be in place to ensure that all participating leagues have representation in a manner that relegation of their clubs does not banish them from the Super League altogether for substantial periods. Alternatively, the play-offs may be scrapped, and teams from those national associations get promoted to the Super League, whose clubs have been relegated in the current season.

It is the last point that will probably be the most contentious of issues to resolve as the sustainability of a multi-country league may involve taking into consideration factors other than sporting achievements of those involved. However, it is clearly an issue which is in the best interests of national associations to resolve. Otherwise there may be a real and definite threat of a breakaway Super league which would be an irritant for the big clubs with them having to deal with bans and legal tussles with UEFA/FIFA etc., but could turn out to be disastrous financially for national associations.

Imagine a Premiership in 2011stripped of Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea and the impact that would have on its revenue generating abilities.

What it would mean

We may love to linger on with idealistic concepts of the way the sport should be played and how clubs and teams should be built, but reality has shown us that like all other industries, football will be dominated by a few strong players with others looking to operate in their respective niches to survive. Having accepted that Paradise has been lost, we may then begin to look for good in the earth we are left in and clearly there are some.

?    For football lovers, it will be a chance to watch the best against the best week-in and week-out. It's a global game with a global audience and clearly that audience will lap all matches up, every weekend.

?    For the Super Clubs, it would provide a reasonable opportunity to balance their books if they choose to do so. Of course, they have rarely shown any financial prudence whatsoever, yet between them their combined fan base is substantially large enough to have a significant interest in ensuring that these clubs don't go bust. This will be their chance to make themselves sustainable.

?    National Leagues will become more competitive and more clubs will have a chance to win trophies nationally. Having said that, the global prominence and marketability of national leagues may suffer substantially.

The above of course, is a tip of the iceberg analysis and discussion. There are many more facets to be thought about and many more debates to be settled before the Super League sees the light of the day. But as I have emphasized before, see the light of the day, it most certainly will. Please drop in your opinions and brickbats as comments.

In the meanwhile, till the Super League starts unfolding, let us continue to enjoy the start of a season pregnant with possibilities which has been sensational and has finally brought the focus back again to sets of eleven men kicking balls.